During the presidential debates in Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, was asked on his thoughts about the ICC cases and how he planned to govern the country while still dealing with the cases at ICC. His response was very diplomatic and off course well rehearsed. He said that the case against him at the ICC was personal, it was a personal challenge and that he was going to deal with it in a personal manner. I know we all have different points agreeing or disagreeing with his comments. The thing about Kenya is that we are a sharply divided country, and those who support the ICC and those who oppose the ICC, believe so much in their ideals that nothing else matters.
The fact of the matter is the cases against Uhuruto and Sang will affect all Kenyans whether they like it or not, whether they support them or not. Before I indulge you into the details of why I think the ICC cases are not just Uhuruto’s personal problem, allow me to state that, the biggest looser in the 2007/2008 post election violence are the direct victims of the violence. Those who died, those who lost loved ones, those who saw things they should never see and are scarred in their lives forever for witnessing some of the most heinous crimes to be committed by man. There those who lost property, those who saw their neighbour turn out to be an animal, the distrust, the pain, the heartache, the deaths, the blood. Six years on, the IDPs do not have a place they call home, they do not know if and when they will ever be placed or get a piece of land. These people suffered then, and continue to suffer as that rest of us engage in debates as to whether ICC cases should go on or not.
I took a look at possible outcomes or direction that this whole ICC fiasco will take and no matter how it went Kenya stands to be affected.
SCENARIO 1: UHURUTO ARE FOUND GUILTY AND THEREFORE MUST FACE JAIL TERMS:
There are many, many Kenyans who would like to see this verdict. The thousands of dead victims, those permanently disfigured and those whose emotional scars will never heal, would love to see this verdict, justice at last, justice. However, the way Uhuruto are fighting these cases, I do not see them agreeing to be jailed. In my opinion, they would rather go the Bashir way and never face a day in jail. They will defy the ICC and will try and marshall all patriotism within Kenya and Africa, as is the case with all dictators who turn onto that raw emotion of patriotism when things begin to go haywire. Take a look at Museveni, he crushes all opposition at will, no press freedom and is now on the forefront of the fight against ICC. Do I even need to take a look at Mugabe? Anyway, if Uhuruto decide they are not getting arrested, everything will come crashing down, the sanctions, the economy and with it the livelihoods of so many, ask Zimbabweans what it means to be a millionaire in a messed up country.
SCENARIO 2: UHURUTO FOUND GUILTY, DO NOT GET TO JAIL, BUT LOSE IN THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
If Uhuruto loose in the next general election, and had been found guilty by ICC, THEN the next president will be tasked with arresting them and handing them over to the ICC. This will create some serious dilemma, if the president goes ahead and pursues arresting Uhuruto, without a doubt, the Kikuyu community and the Kalenjin community will not lie down and let their ‘men’ be arrested and handed over to the the ICC. I see chaos, I see fracas, I see a country that will be rendered ungovernable.
If on the other hand, the elected president refuses to arrest them then there comes the sanctions, and there goes our economy that we might as we postpone vision 2030 to 3030.
You might be wondering how will the victims ever get justice then? The truth is that, I DON’T KNOW. Not sure if they will ever get that. The main problem with the ICC cases is that they are not just about a bunch of thugs who went raping stealing and killing, they are more than that. They were a culmination of over 40 years of frustrations, injustice, corruption, hatred, hate mongering, and a political class that always takes advantage of the underlying raw emotions. The politicians have used all these misconceptions to win their seats, and never give solutions.
Love them or hate them, Uhuruto are the key to Kenya’s economy and the livelihoods of millions of Kenyans. Kenyans are safe as long as they continue to cooperate with the ICC. The western powers have no choice but to continue bilateral trade with Kenya and providing other assistance and cooperation. Kenyans will also be safe if Uhuruto are able to prove their ‘innocence’ and are able declared innocent by the ICC. This is the best possible route that their cases can take, and I am not sure that they can be able to do this.